[I826.Ebook] Ebook Download Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, by Charles MacKay

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Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, by Charles MacKay

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Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds is a history of popular folly by Charles Mackay. The book chronicles its targets in three parts: "National Delusions," "Peculiar Follies," and "Philosophical Delusions." Learn why intelligent people do amazingly stupid things when caught up in speculative edevorse. The subjects of Mackay's debunking include alchemy, beards (influence of politics and religion on), witch-hunts, crusades, and duels. Present day writers on economics, such as Andrew Tobias, laud the three chapters on economic bubbles.

• Sales Rank: #308551 in eBooks
• Published on: 2012-12-10
• Released on: 2012-12-10
• Format: Kindle eBook

Amazon.com Review
Why do otherwise intelligent individuals form seething masses of idiocy when they engage in collective action? Why do financially sensible people jump lemming-like into hare-brained speculative frenzies--only to jump broker-like out of windows when their fantasies dissolve? We may think that the Great Crash of 1929, junk bonds of the '80s, and over-valued high-tech stocks of the '90s are peculiarly 20th century aberrations, but Mackay's classic--first published in 1841--shows that the madness and confusion of crowds knows no limits, and has no temporal bounds. These are extraordinarily illuminating,and, unfortunately, entertaining tales of chicanery, greed and naivete. Essential reading for any student of human nature or the transmission of ideas.

In fact, cases such as Tulipomania in 1624--when Tulip bulbs traded at a higher price than gold--suggest the existence of what I would dub "Mackay's Law of Mass Action:" when it comes to the effect of social behavior on the intelligence of individuals, 1+1 is often less than 2, and sometimes considerably less than 0.

Review
As with any true classic, once it is read it is hard to imagine not having known of it--and there is the compulsion to recommend it to others. --Andrew Tobias

From the Publisher
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Most helpful customer reviews

533 of 560 people found the following review helpful.
Severely abridged edition
By nothingt5
Be aware that the edition published by Harriman House ONLY contains the chapters relating to economics, so you only get probably 1/7 of the original book...

186 of 194 people found the following review helpful.
Truly a classic!
By A Customer
If you're into investing, sooner or later an investment columnist will mention Extraordinary Delusions as required reading. It's that and more...
Charles Mackay first details France's Mississippi Scheme & England's South Sea Bubble (from the early 1700's). Then he covers the famous Dutch "tulipomania" of the 1600's. These are all enjoyable reports of financial manias and their aftermaths (though the South Sea Bubble chapter dragged on a bit). But the financial reader will be surprised when she realizes she's still only 100 pages into a 700 page book! Mackay proceeds to cover:
Alchemy - 150 pages of exhaustive (& exhausting) detail of hobbyists & serious investors who were convinced they could turn base metals into gold, if only they could find the right ancient recipe & stoke their workshop cauldrons just a little bit hotter.
The Crusades - 100 pages that prove that modern Islamic fundamentalists did not invent the idea of a "holy war". I had no idea the Crusades came out of official harassment of Y1K religious pilgrims! Remember this: If your country is being inundated with religious pilgrims, just try to think of them as a tourist opportunity. You don't want to get them angry!
The Witch Mania - 100pp. This section was unexpectedly chilling. As I read about European witch trials of the 1400s-1600s, I kept thinking of our recent satanic child abuse trials. It's all been done before: The wild unprovable accusations, including eating dead babies; trusting unreliable witnesses specifically BECAUSE of the severity of the charges; False Memory Syndrome. At least the rack & Trial by Ordeal are no longer recognized as valid forensic techniques.
The Slow Poisoners - Murder isn't really murder if you poison the victim slowly enough, is it?
Also covered: Animal Magnetism, Prophecies, Fortune-Telling, Hair & beard fashions in men, catch phrases & slang, Relics, Duels & Ordeals, Haunted Houses, & Popular Admiration of Great Thieves.
At times the book dragged, especially in the chapters I wasn't interested in. (But hey, that's what skimming is for.) So with that caveat, go ahead & get the book. It'll be a great investment of 12 bucks!

75 of 75 people found the following review helpful.
The definitive book of manias
By M. Mcfarland
This is it. If you want to know how many times the world has been gripped by madness then look no farther than the reprinted edition of MacKay's classic. Written in that wonderful Olde English style of the early 19th century, MacKay takes us on a tour of the world's most horrifying manias - up to about 1840 anyway.

I particularly liked the chapter on witchcraft and witch hunts since it told me everything I'll ever need to know on why seemingly intelligent groups of people band together to banish or murder innocent members of society - just because they are different. Another engaging chapter deals with millennialism - the fear and dread that grips society at the end of each millennium. If you thought the end of the last one brought turbulence, you should read what happened a thousand years ago.

This book is often quoted by stock market pundits and talking heads as if it were a treatise on irrational behaviour in the financial markets. It isn't. It deals with irrational behaviour and mass stupidity in all walks of life. Five Stars.

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[J455.Ebook] Download Ebook Predictive Analytics: Microsoft Excel, by Conrad Carlberg

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Predictive Analytics: Microsoft Excel, by Conrad Carlberg

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Excel predictive analytics for serious data crunchers!

�

The movie Moneyball made predictive analytics famous: Now you can apply the same techniques to help your business win. You don’t need multimillion-dollar software: All the tools you need are available in Microsoft Excel, and all the knowledge and skills are right here, in this book!

�

Microsoft Excel MVP Conrad Carlberg shows you how to use Excel predictive analytics to solve real-world problems in areas ranging from sales and marketing to operations. Carlberg offers unprecedented insight into building powerful, credible, and reliable forecasts, showing how to gain deep insights from Excel that would be difficult to uncover with costly tools such as SAS or SPSS.

�

You’ll get an extensive collection of downloadable Excel workbooks you can easily adapt to your own unique requirements, plus VBA code—much of it open-source—to streamline several of this book’s most complex techniques.

�

Step by step, you’ll build on Excel skills you already have, learning advanced techniques that can help you increase revenue, reduce costs, and improve productivity. By mastering predictive analytics, you’ll gain a powerful competitive advantage for your company and yourself.

�

�� •�� Learn both the “how” and “why” of using data to make better tactical decisions

�� •�� Choose the right analytics technique for each problem

�� •�� Use Excel to capture live real-time data from diverse sources, including third-party websites

�� •�� Use logistic regression to predict behaviors such as “will buy” versus “won’t buy”

�� •�� Distinguish random data bounces from real, fundamental changes

�� •�� Forecast time series with smoothing and regression

�� •�� Construct more accurate predictions by using Solver to find maximum likelihood estimates

�� •�� Manage huge numbers of variables and enormous datasets with principal components analysis and Varimax factor rotation

�� •�� Apply ARIMA (Box-Jenkins) techniques to build better forecasts and understand their meaning

��

�

�

• Sales Rank: #448314 in Books
• Published on: 2012-07-12
• Released on: 2013-03-15
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 9.10" h x .90" w x 6.90" l, 1.05 pounds
• Binding: Paperback
• 304 pages

About the Author

Counting conservatively, this is Conrad Carlberg’s eleventh book about quantitative analysis using Microsoft Excel, which he still regards with a mix of awe and exasperation. A look back at the “About the Author” paragraph in Carlberg’s first book, published in 1995, shows that the only word that remains accurate is “He.” Scary.

Most helpful customer reviews

20 of 21 people found the following review helpful.
Nice Integration of Excel and Analytics
By Adam W Phoenix
I thought the author did a great job presenting real world examples and techniques. It was nice to seethis much detail while highlighting some of the more advanced options in Excel. Both average and advanced Excel users will appreciate and learn something new in this book. I found the level of detail in the explanation of the statistical calculations appropriate for the assumed audience. This is not an intro to statistics book and I think more users with more experience and a statistical background will appreciate being able to jump right into the core intent of the book and how to leverage Excel as the primary tool.

14 of 14 people found the following review helpful.
From 0 to competent in 300 pages!
By Joseph Johnson
As an inexperienced Demand Analyst I scrambled to understand the academic literature on forecasting. I was pretty swamped and did not know where to start until I found this book. Carlberg has a way of explaining very complex issues in a way that a beginner can grasp and an intermediate or expert can learn from. His book is funny, intuitive, and really hits home as to where to start when diving into predictive analytics. Although I've read through the book and worked through several of the examples, I keep the book close at hand for a quick reference. Great, great book!

28 of 32 people found the following review helpful.
Excel:Predictive Analytics - For Math inclined, Precise, comprehensive, but easy to follow.
By rrdigitalbookworm
Excels [use of] Predictive Analytics is a book true to its meaning taking a once complex understanding of powerful statistics equations and applying it through Excel with a meaningful and visual understanding.
Author Conrad Carlberg's book strikes the most effective use of quantitative analysis using forcasting analytics
which to some without statistical analysis background might seem a bit foreign. For those primed and
willing to take the next leap into forcasting predictive analytics, it is a remarkable use of statistics put to its true meaning. The author puts forth an understanding to derive strong probabilities to make powerfully informed business decisions.
For example, Carlberg's book explains a Logistic Regression in a perfected simplistic steps using logical but simple equations. For example he does so by stepping through and analyzing a Purchase/No Purchase preditive analysis(using dicotomous variable) behavior. He concludes his explanation using probability of likelihood stepping through a series of complex formulas (Autocorrelation Formulas(ACFs), Partials(PACFs), Time Series Regression, visually outputting them into barchart and spot graph for analysis and interpretation with all original input calcs handled by Excel. Formulas which took many hours to compute are whittled down to become mere 'program executed tools' of the trade for quick accurate business decision making. There is complete truth to the mathematical elements as he explains it with simplistic meaningful and comprehensible language (again with true examples to follow if you will). A true mathematician at heart. Thank you Mr. Carlberg. You have brought another great myth in 'forecasting statistical analysis' to the forefront and shone light of its true meaning to the masses. I would recommend this reading to those who wish to have another great angle at Predictive Analytics. CEOs, Managers, Logistics Supervisors, I highly recommend this reading. It is truly effective business building and predictive operations material. One which trains big picture analysis for growing a business. Edward Deming (October 14, 1900 - December 20, 1993) would be proud. A+++ informative reading for the business owner. 5/5 Highly recommended.

RERJR

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[R659.Ebook] Ebook Download Professional Cooking, 6th Edition, by Wayne Gisslen

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Professional Cooking, 6th Edition, by Wayne Gisslen

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On Professional Cooking:

"This book has a place in the library for all who want to understand and build their basic cooking skills."
-The American Institute of Wine and Food

On Professional Baking:

"An encyclopedic and clear handbook of things to do with your oven, from challah to specialty meringues and mocha roll; even some unbaked desserts for sweet tooths are tucked in at the end of this textbook."
-The Wall Street Journal

Wayne Gisslen's Professional Cooking has been used by hundreds of thousands of chefs to master the basics of their craft. Packed with more than 1,200 recipes and more information than ever before, this Sixth Edition of the cornerstone resource offers complete, step-by-step instruction in the cooking theory and techniques necessary to succeed at the professional level.

Special features include:

• Over 100 new recipes - including new recipes for meats, poultry, vegetables, and grains, as well as a new chapter on cooking for vegetarian diets
• Expanded and updated information-featuring a contemporary look at presenting and a detailed history of modern food service
• Superb photography - nearly 1,200 illustrations and photos highlighting ingredients, step-by-step techniques, and plated dishes

• Sales Rank: #1278291 in Books
• Published on: 2006-03-03
• Ingredients: Example Ingredients
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 11.20" h x 1.86" w x 9.00" l,
• Binding: Hardcover
• 1088 pages

From the Inside Flap
—From the Foreword by André Cointreau President and CEO, Le Cordon Bleu

If you're serious about cooking, you'll want to join the hundreds of thousands of chefs who have used Wayne Gisslen's Professional Cooking to learn the basics of their craft. With more information and step-by-step photographs than ever before, the Sixth Edition of this bestselling culinary classic gives you a complete foundation in cooking techniques and the theories behind them.

Progressing logically from simple cooking methods to more advanced techniques, this Sixth Edition helps you to understand underlying principles first and then focus on applying them. It lets you work at your own pace through every part of the menu, from stocks, sauces, and soups to meats, poultry, fish, and shellfish; vegetables and grains; and breads and desserts. You'll find detailed information on tools and equipment, mise en place preparation, basic cooking principles and techniques, and food presentation and garnishing.

Procedures are explained clearly, step-by-step, with more than 1,200 recipes—100 of them new to this edition—to help you develop your skills and build confidence. Along the way, more than 1,200 illustrations and photos of ingredients, step-by-step techniques, and plated dishes in splendid visual detail serve as a valuable source of guidance and inspiration. Additional special features of this edition include:

• A brand new chapter on different types of vegetarian diets and more vegetarian recipes throughout the book
• Expanded and updated information, including a contemporary look at presenting and garnishing food and a detailed history of modern food service
• Helpful sidebars and dedicated chapters on menus, recipes, and cost management; cooking with legumes, grains, and pastas; breakfast preparation; dairy; and beverages

Throughout, this Sixth Edition's up-to-date, full-color format makes it easy to find key information at a glance, so that you can spend less time reading and more time creating in the kitchen. So if you're looking to take your cooking skills to a higher level, start the way the professionals do—with Wayne Gisslen's Professional Cooking, Sixth Edition.

From the Back Cover

On Professional Cooking:

"This book has a place in the library for all who want to understand and build their basic cooking skills."
—The American Institute of Wine and Food

On Professional Baking:

"An encyclopedic and clear handbook of things to do with your oven, from challah to specialty meringues and mocha roll; even some unbaked desserts for sweet tooths are tucked in at the end of this textbook."
—The Wall Street Journal

Wayne Gisslen's Professional Cooking has been used by hundreds of thousands of chefs to master the basics of their craft. Packed with more than 1,200 recipes and more information than ever before, this Sixth Edition of the cornerstone resource offers complete, step-by-step instruction in the cooking theory and techniques necessary to succeed at the professional level. Special features include:

• OVER 100 new recipes—including new recipes for meats, poultry, vegetables, and grains, as well as a new chapter on cooking for vegetarian diets
• Expanded and updated information—featuring a contemporary look at presenting and garnishing food and a detailed history of modern food service
• Superb photography—nearly 1,200 illustrations and photos highlighting ingredients, step-by-step techniques, and plated dishes

About the Author

J. Gerard Smith is a freelance photographer and photo illustrator who has collaborated with Wayne Gisslen since 1980. Educated at the Pratt Institute, he specializes in food, travel, and commercial photography. His work has appeared in Time, Newsweek, The New York Times Magazine, and more than 100 books.

Most helpful customer reviews

89 of 90 people found the following review helpful.
Great Book, and Much Cheaper Than The "College Version"
By RammerJammer
I am in culinary school and this is the required text for our classes. After hours of researching online, and even taking the time to call the publisher, I finally decided to take a risk by buying this "Trade" version rather than the "College Version," offered here on Amazon and in our school's bookstore. Rest assured! This book is EXACTLY the same as the "College Version," but it doesn't include the CulinarE Companion CD (which our school does not utilize anyway)! I even had the instructors at school ask the publisher about the differences, and they admitted that there are none! All of the recipes and page numbers match up identically. Save yourself the $36+ dollars and buy this version instead of getting ripped off by a marketing scam to get more money out of students by calling a book the "College Version" - I'm glad I did!

We are just getting into the book, so I can't offer too much of an opinion, but from what I've seen so far, I'm impressed! I just wanted to add my review so that hopefully another student like myself can save some money. I hope it helps!

3 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
Excellent book - check what you are (not) getting with the Kindle version before purchasing!
By ec-user
The book content is awesome, very well written and explanations are very good. Some sections need to be read several times because there is so much information in each phrase that you are probably missing additional useful content. Still easy to read though.

A few things to take into consideration before purchasing: This book is pretty big and heavy physically, so I went for the Kindle version. while it is a book printout and you can't get the nice features of a real Kindle book. It's still alright if you can live with it, which is my case.

The 4/5 stars is because the physical version comes with a code to download a menu-making software that the electronic version doesn't have (as it comes as a separate piece of paper). You can only get it with the physical version or purchase the code separately for 40$. Not a good deal in my opinion.

5 of 5 people found the following review helpful.
Good book, but get the cheaper version!
By Guard Dad
Like many others, I had to buy this book for the text in my Culinary classes this Fall. I like the book itself, lots of recipes, but be aware this is not a home cook book, it is intended for a chef working in a restaurant or other establishment where you are preparing large amounts. The recipes can be difficult to scale down to smaller portions.

My problem with this book is with the software, the "CulinarE Companion". Getting to the point: it's awful. It takes up HUGE amounts of space on your computer (over a GB), and it uses an odd browser-based interface. Takes for-ev-er to load, too. Occasionally mine will fail during loading, something about an "IP stack error". I decided to get this more expensive version of the book so I'd have the software (my instructor left it up to us, she didn't require it), on the premise that I'd be able to start loading up my own recipes, have everything in one place instead of this pile of various papers that we have at home now. What a joke, this DOES NOT WORK. I'm convinced it's pretty much not possible to add your own recipes, it screws them up so badly. It randomly changes ingredients and amounts, I gave up.

So my advice is to NOT buy this version, go for the cheaper one that doesn't include this terrible software, you're not missing anything, and you'll save $30-35 as well.

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The Atkins Journal: Your Personal Journey Toward a New You, A 120-Day Record, by M.D., Robert C. Atkins

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Be the initial who are reading this The Atkins Journal: Your Personal Journey Toward A New You, A 120-Day Record, By M.D., Robert C. Atkins Based on some reasons, reading this publication will supply even more advantages. Even you should read it tip by step, page by page, you can finish it whenever and anywhere you have time. As soon as more, this on the internet e-book The Atkins Journal: Your Personal Journey Toward A New You, A 120-Day Record, By M.D., Robert C. Atkins will certainly provide you easy of reading time and task. It also provides the encounter that is economical to get to as well as obtain substantially for better life.

This journal is a valuable ally to help you do Atkins properly―enhancing your potential to manage your weight and improve your overall health!

• Sales Rank: #521396 in Books
• Published on: 2003-06-02
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 7.92" h x .54" w x 4.28" l, .50 pounds
• Binding: Plastic Comb
• 224 pages

Features

• ISBN13: 9781590770030
• Condition: Used - Very Good
• Notes: 100% Satisfaction Guarantee. Tracking provided on most orders. Buy with Confidence! Millions of books sold!

Most helpful customer reviews

3 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
I have one of these journals from years ago when ...
By Shirley L Schepp
I have one of these journals from years ago when I did Atkins. I just ordered it again because I am starting over. It has many places to write things and is a 120 - day record journal. I've bought and seen other journals but none can compare to this one. The start of the book gives you a lot of information that you might have forgotten, if you are starting over. The pages are large enough so that you have plenty of spaces to fill in your days food and more. It has a space for Breakfast, Lunch, Dinner, Snacks and Beverages - and along side those it has a place
to write in your net carb count. At the bottom of the page is Total Daily Net Carbs - and also Supplements taken, water intake and exercise!
I've seen other journals and they are smaller and do not have the space for all of the above. If you don't write it down you don't remember what you have eaten.

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Excellent way of keeping track of your daily dietary intake and your daily exercise
By Mag. Miss M
I am always looking for the ideal book, diary, etc. for keeping track of my daily weight, dietary intake and exercise. Most of the books I have tried fall short of my expectations. I love this journal; this is my second purchase for myself plus I have also purchased one as a gift. It is not too big and yet each page gives enough room for me to track every food and beverage item I take in for that day along with my activities. I don't follow the Atkins Diet but it does not stop me from using this great tracking resource.

7 of 7 people found the following review helpful.
Skip this unless you're very disciplined
By H. M. Pearsall
I received mine with a damaged spine. When I started on Atkins I faithfully noted everything I ate for about the first 3 or 4 weeks. So many meals are repeated so I felt I was just copying stuff I'd already noted before. Once you learn what you can have and what to avoid, the journal becomes pointless. Use your own small spiral notebook and save your money. Atkins works for me - I've lost 25 pounds in the 3 months I've been on it!

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The Atkins Journal: Your Personal Journey Toward a New You, A 120-Day Record, by M.D., Robert C. Atkins PDF

The Atkins Journal: Your Personal Journey Toward a New You, A 120-Day Record, by M.D., Robert C. Atkins PDF

The Atkins Journal: Your Personal Journey Toward a New You, A 120-Day Record, by M.D., Robert C. Atkins PDF

[R152.Ebook] Free PDF The Donald Trump Way: The Best Business Strategies From The King (Donald Trump, Business, Entrepreneur, Money), by Martin Reese

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• Sales Rank: #2227783 in eBooks
• Published on: 2016-03-02
• Released on: 2016-03-02
• Format: Kindle eBook

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[C575.Ebook] Download Ebook Handbook of RAFT PolymerizationFrom Wiley-VCH

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Spanning the entire field from fundamentals to applications in material science, this one-stop source is the first comprehensive reference for polymer, physical and surface chemists, materials scientists, chemical engineers, and those chemists working in industry.
From the contents:
* Introduction: Living Free Radical Polymerization and the RAFT Process
* Fundamental Structure-Reactivity Correlations Governing the RAFT Process
* Mechanism and Kinetics
* The RAFT Process as a Kinetic Tool
* Theory and Practice in Technical Applications
* RAFT Polymerization in Bulk and Organic Solvents, as well as Homogeneous Aqueous Systems
* Emulsion and Mini-Emulsion Polymerization
* Complex Architecture Design
* Macromolecular Design via the Interchange of Xanthates
* Surface Modification
* Stability and Physical Properties of RAFT Polymers
* Novel Materials: From Drug Delivery to Opto-Electronics
* Outlook and Future Developments

• Sales Rank: #2732200 in Books
• Published on: 2008-03-03
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 9.70" h x 1.30" w x 7.00" l, 2.60 pounds
• Binding: Hardcover
• 556 pages

Review
"It is an excellent book, and I suspect that workers (and students) from many fields will find this a constantly useful reference for many years to come. "(Journal of the American Chemical Society, July 4, 2008)

"...very good support for the expert, an excellent tool for the newcomer" (Macromol. Rapid Commun. 04/2008)

From the Back Cover
Reversible Addition Fragmentation Chain Transfer (RAFT) technology is one of the most important new developments in polymer chemistry. The most significant benefit of RAFT polymerization is that it allows the preparation of new polymeric architectures with defined properties.
Spanning the entire field from fundamentals to applications in material science, this one-stop source is the first comprehensive reference on this hot topic for polymer, physical and surface chemists, materials scientists, chemical engineers, and those chemists working in industry.
Edited by a rising star within the community, this Handbook assembles the latest knowledge about RAFT, ranging from its mechanistic underpinnings to practical applications, providing high value for researchers and research managers seeking up-to-date information about the RAFT process, its scope and limitations.

From the contents:
* Introduction: Living Free Radical Polymerization and the RAFT Process
* Fundamental Structure-Reactivity Correlations Governing the RAFT Process
* Mechanism and Kinetics
* The RAFT Process as a Kinetic Tool
* Theory and Practice in Technical Applications
* RAFT Polymerization in Bulk and Organic Solvents, as well as Homogeneous Aqueous Systems
* Emulsion and Mini-Emulsion Polymerization
* Complex Architecture Design
* Macromolecular Design via the Interchange of Xanthates
* Surface Modification
* Stability and Physical Properties of RAFT Polymers
* Novel Materials: From Drug Delivery to Opto-Electronics

About the Author
Professor Barner-Kowollik completed his PhD at the University of Goettingen, before joining the Centre for Advanced Macromolecular Design (CAMD) in Sydney, Australia. He has published over 110 peer reviewed research papers, over 80 conference papers and 5 book chapters. He has received several awards for his work, including the Rennie Medal of the Royal Australian Chemical Institute and the Edgeworth David Medal of the Royal Society of New South Wales.

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Handbook of RAFT PolymerizationFrom Wiley-VCH PDF

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